COVID-19 cases will continue to rise until at least late October, getting up to as many as 120 cases per day, York Region Public Health is projecting.
The projection is based on local data modelling, associate medical officer of health Dr. Richard Gould said in an Aug. 16 video update.
At the peak of the pandemic last April, York Region marked a 7-day case average of nearly 500 cases, which then steadily dropped to just over 100 at the end of May. While the seven-day average plunged to a low of five cases July 15, it has since steadily risen to the most recent rate of 45.7 cases Aug. 13.
Cases are rising across the province, in the wake of loosened public health restrictions and the more transmissible delta COVID-19 variant.
New cases will increase into the fall, when cooler weather starts to drive more people indoors, Gould said.
“The recent increase in cases is also a good reminder COVID-19 is not going away any time soon,” he said. “These next few months will require all of us to continue to remain vigilant.”
Vaccination progress has stalled in the region, rising to 82.1 per cent of eligible individuals age 12 and older with a first dose as of Aug. 12, just 0.5 per cent more than the previous week. For second doses, 75.1 per cent of people 12 and older are now fully vaccinated.
Most of the new cases are in unvaccinated individuals, including children under 12, but he noted there are some cases in fully immunized people, as well.
“No vaccine offers 100 per cent protection against COVID-19. However, those who have received both doses of the COVID-19 vaccine and become infected should experience milder symptoms and are much less likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization or be admitted into the ICU,” Gould added.
Gould said more cases are coming from close contact transmission. He said besides following public health guidelines, people should be considering the allowed gatherings they are having.
“Are they outdoors or indoors? How many people are attending? Is there enough space to maintain a distance of two metres?” Gould said. “Should you be wearing a mask, even though it’s not required?"
Gould said public health could introduce more restrictions if needed.
“It’s nobody’s wish to further disrupt people’s lives, but we will also not hesitate to implement targeted public health measures as needed to keep our communities safe.
“Our community has put forth a tremendous effort in combating COVID-19 over the past 18 months,” he added. “But we must ask for a little bit more as we attempt to conquer the last mile.”
