York Region’s medical officer of health indicated a precipitous rise in cases could spell the return to mask mandates as regional councillors expressed uncertainty about mandates ending.
Dr. Barry Pakes reported to regional council today about the continued trend of rising COVID-19 cases as tracked by wastewater data. He said although some increase is to be expected with COVID-19 measures ending, there is uncertainty about whether it will be a gradual increase with minimal impact or a precipitous increase that will harm acute care capacity.
When asked about a trigger for localized action, Pakes said a precipitous increase in cases could cause that. At the moment, he described the situation as an “amber light” requiring citizens to take caution.
“When the curve looks very gradual, we’re certainly less concerned. And when it starts going up precipitously, we certainly are more concerned,” he said, adding hospitalizations are also a consideration. “We certainly can see increases in hospitalizations or visits to the hospital, and then we would initiate some further action."
The province has lifted most public health measures this month, including mask mandates ending March 21. A more transmissible BA.2 subvariant has also become dominant, including in York Region, though Pakes said it is not more severe than the previous Omicron variant.
Pakes said he would have preferred another week or two before mask mandates ended. But he added there was more willingness to end the mandate because many people are still voluntarily wearing masks. A NewmarketToday poll highlighted 69 per cent of local respondents were accepting of others asking them to mask.
“We continue to see (mask) compliance,” Pakes said. “That will certainly wane with time.”
Councillors expressed their uncertainties regarding the lifting of mask mandates and the situation going forward.
Vaughan Mayor Maurizio Bevilacqua said, “We have consistently underestimated COVID” and that Canada can likely expect to follow international trends with more cases and deaths on the horizon.
“It seems to me, while we need to go back to life as normal, the reality is it’s not normal because we have this virus that is very persistent,” he said.
Markham Mayor Frank Scarpitti said he also would have liked to have seen mask mandates maintained longer.
“I’m concerned,” he said, adding he wonders of the impact as more citizens take their masks off. “I do wonder what we could do as regional council.”
Pakes said that for now, individuals should assume there is risk in most indoor settings, with individualized risk assessment more possible in the summer.
“This is a transitional phase where we are going to see increased transmission,” Pakes said. “But we don’t necessarily know what that’s going to look like on the public health end.”
Regardless, Pakes said the fall respiratory season would likely require more masking.
“Even in the best cases, I think it would be reasonable to go back to encourage more broad mask use (in the fall),” he said.
