There’s a winter weather war heating up between the Pacific blob and El Niño, and the winner may well determine if you pack up and head to a beach or fire up your snowmobile and roar off to the nearest ice fishing hut.
While not nearly as terrifying as it sounds, the large swath of warm water off the coast of British Columbia known as the blob was responsible for pretty much cancelling winter there and in parts of Alberta in 2014-2015. It was one of the warmest winters on record with virtually no skiing in the Rockies.
But the presence of the blob on Canada’s West Coast then, as now, said Environment Canada senior climatologist Dave Phillips, means the polar opposite for winter weather in southern Ontario, including York Region.
“I don’t want to raise the alarm but it’s just a little nervousness that I have. Is this winter going to be a repeat of the blob battling it out with El Niño?” Phillips said. “The warm water out there creates a high pressure area of southerly winds in British Columbia, but southerly in one part of the country is replaced by northerly in another part of the country, generating more polar vortex or cold air.”
Environment Canada’s official winter outlook will be released Dec. 1, but in the meantime, Phillips is keeping an eye on the blob.
“The blob could disappear, it seems to change every day, and it seems to be a little bit weaker,” Phillips said. “If it gets mixed up with some colder water below, it'll diffuse the warmer air above, but I can't give you anything that's clear or absolutely certain. It may clarify itself at the end of November.”
There's also something else that has Phillips a little perplexed about the upcoming winter.
“Right now, we're seeing a weak El Niño situation, which most people consider to be a scourge because it typically means drought in some parts of the world and floods in others,” Phillips said. “For us, it usually indicates a milder than normal winter. We may be the Great White North and the land of ice and snow, but if I told Canadians we were going to cancel winter, they would be delighted by that.”
A strong El Niño indicates the possibility of warmer, southerly air and less ice cold Siberian or Arctic air.
“It generally doesn't really translate into a tropical kind of winter for us, but it means that we're going to get some melting days and some icy days,” Phillips said. “It's not going to have the influence that El Niño have had in the past, so that's why I'm a little nervous. I would bet a couple of loonies, but not the family farm, that this winter will be warmer.”
For climatologists, December to February weather is what’s considered winter. What Newmarket has seen this week with its first snow squall alert and dusting here and there of snow is more like a “winter trailer”, Phillips said.
The Farmers’ Almanac predicts a brutally cold winter for 2018-2019, much the same as last year only not as long, but Phillips disagrees.
Here is the “unofficial” winter weather outlook, according to Phillips:
“Well, we think it will be milder than normal. The El Niño is weak and therefore your batting averages are not going to be as high as they normally would be. When we look back at other El Niño years in Newmarket and York Region, we tend to find that those winters were moderate.
“I think the winter is going to be shorter. I think it's going to be over in March. I think April will be more spring-like and it'll certainly be better than last year. I think the snow we’re seeing so far in November is not the snow that'll give you your white Christmas. This is not snow that’ll be staying on, this is just a teaser. It's a way of nature reminding you to stop procrastinating, put the lawn furniture away and get your snow tires on.”
“I think the unknown is that blob and who's going to win that war. Is it going to be El Niño or is it going to be the Pacific blob? If it's the Pacific blob, we might see a colder-than-normal winter. If it's the El Niño, then we’ll clearly see a milder winter than last year and certainly, in all cases, it will be shorter.”
If you're not a big fan of winter, cheer on El Niño, and for all those who love the snowy stuff, let’s hear it for the blob.
