Average prices for single-family homes in Ontario were up 0.9 per cent in December, compared to December of 2022, figures released by the Canadian Real Estate Association Monday show.
The numbers are seasonally adjusted and do not take inflation into account. Inflation, depending on what measure you choose, is running at between 3.1 and 3.5 per cent.
In the GTA, where Newmarket resides, the average price of single-family homes has risen from $1.284 million in December 2022 to $1.305 million in December 2023.
However, prices of single-family homes have been dipping since July 2023 in the GTA. In July, the average price of a single-family home in the GTA was $1.402 million.
In Newmarket, there were fewer than 950 houses sold in 2023, said Darcy Toombs, team leader/broker with Toombs Team Real Estate Group.
"The market went though a big shift," he said.
He said that it was the slowest year for real estate in Newmarket since 1997, which he says is a surprise given the growth of the town over the last two decades.
Inventory has been a big part of the trends, said Toombs. Inventory in Newmarket was short at the beginning of 2023, he said, with active inventory hovering around 100 for all housing types, which helped keep prices elevated.
"Active inventory in September to November saw a large increase in homes for sale, which helped pushed prices down," he said. "We have seen a large number of properties withdrawn from the market for the holidays."
Toombs said that rates are expected to come down in the second half of 2024, which will likely be when prices bottom out. He foresees a large upswing in inventory in Newmarket this year and predicts that prices will continue to drop into 2024.
On a provincewide basis, prices for condos were down by 0.7 per cent, and townhouses were up by 1.4 per cent.
Apartment prices in the GTA have dipped since December 2022, with the average price going from $706,600 to $700,000 in December 2023. The average price of apartments peaked in 2023 at $728,400 in September.
With townhouses in the GTA, the price has risen since last year. In December 2022, the average price was $803,000, while it rose to $817,000 in December 2023. The average price of townhouses peaked in 2023 at $856,300 in September.
Nationally, sales volumes were livelier — they rose 8.7 per cent month-over-month in December — but the MLS price index was up only 0.7 per cent year-over-year, roughly in line with Ontario.
“Was the December bounce in home sales the start of the expected recovery in Canadian housing markets? Probably not just yet,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist.
"It was more likely just some of the sellers and buyers that were holding onto unrealistic pricing expectations last fall finally coming together to get deals done before the end of the year. We’re still forecasting a recovery in housing demand in 2024, but we’ll have to wait a few more months to get a sense of what that ultimately looks like.”
“While December did offer up a bit of a surprise in sales numbers to cap the year, the real test of the markets’ resilience will be in the spring,” said CREA chair Larry Cerqua.
— With files from Rob Paul
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