By 2051, York Region's population is expected to grow by 2.02 million people, but the way things are going, there will not be enough housing for all of those people — or, at least, not housing they will be able to afford.
This was the conclusion of an analysis of the region's housing market to help York Region explore its options for improving the housing situation and making sure availability keeps up with a growing population.
"To succeed and continue to be one of the most desirable places to live and work, we need to understand the current situation and how we can deliver a diversity of housing options at price points that will meet the needs of our growing population," said Sandra Malcic, director of long-range planning.
According to Jamie Cook, director of land economics at Watson and Associates, which performed the analysis, the objective of the study is to try to determine why housing is falling behind population growth and to provide guidance on how to fill the shortfall.
Currently, 50 per cent of York Region single-detached homes are priced under $1 million. Meanwhile, 91 per cent of homes in Durham Region fall within that range and 86 per cent in Peel Region.
He noted that between 2006 and 2019, housing prices and average rents have increased significantly faster than household incomes. Simultaneously, York Region's housing market underwent a major shift away from single-family dwellings toward medium and high-density housing such as condos and townhouses.
"Over time, there will be an increased need for more medium and high-density housing, which will largely be driven by demographics such as the aging population, as well as pressures from declining affordability," he said.
But even as the shift to high-density housing continues, almost all of those new units are in the ownership market. Most rental units were built in the 1960s, and the vacancy rate in York Region is at 1 per cent, which is half of the provincial average.
Unless something is done, said Cook, York Region runs the risk of having most people spending more than 30 per cent of their incomes on housing, having people settle for housing that doesn't meet their needs, or even just picking up and leaving.
There are many reasons why housing is increasingly unaffordable, said Cook, there are macroeconomic conditions, dollar exchange rates, federal trade policy, and mortgages regulations. All of which are beyond the control of local governments.
"But there are areas where local government has control such as housing supply ... as well as the availability and developability of land to accommodate new housing growth," he said.
Malcic said they don't have any concrete solutions to offer on how York Region can address the looming housing crunch.
"We don't have all the answers yet, but we will get more answers during the deeper dive we will have the consultant take for us," she said. "But policy alone will not solve our housing gap, so we will have to work within our partners toward a solution."
But some initial ideas include promoting family-friendly housing, allowing modular housing projects, instituting a vacant unit tax, or start rent-to-own programs with willing property owners.
Councillors had a lengthy discussion about the issue, with some of them describing the situation as a crisis.
Many ideas were tossed around on ways to close the housing gap, such as setting a target for new rental properties for the region. Mayor John Taylor pitched an idea of communities putting up a couple of acres of municipal land for development on a regular basis.
"I would like to see us get there in the next year or two, I think the lower-tier municipalities can commit to providing two or three acres of land every term of office, or every five years, to either Housing York, a non-for-profit build, or a for a for-profit build," he said.
"That way, we can have a constant flow of land."
A follow-up report with more details on the situation is expected in March.
