As Newmarket and the rest of York Region got the thumbs up from the province today to move to the next stage of reopening, York Region’s medical officer of health is urging residents to continue to follow public health guidelines to help prevent a “second wave” of COVID-19 this fall that could be more virulent than the first.
“Historically, second waves tend to be much worse than the first wave. The only way that we can safeguard ourselves in the absence of a vaccine is to be even more vigilant, not less vigilant as we liberalize the openings,” Dr. Karim Kurji said in a video update.
“We need to become actually more vigilant as things open up, not less vigilant. People think opening means loosening or relaxing, it actually means the opposite,” Newmarket Mayor John Taylor said at York Regional council last Thursday.
“As businesses open cautiously, there are likely to be more interactions between people. We have to remember that this virus has been very opportunistic and it is just waiting in the wings for opportunities to infect more of us,” Kurji said.
“The vast majority of us are not immune to COVID-19 and the virus is just as virulent as it has always been.”
The next COVID-19 outbreak is expected to occur between September and November, and could be prolonged to January, with its severity depending on a number of factors, Kurji said.
The relaxation of the border crossings and the number of people travelling from the U.S. and Canada, and internationally, the reopening of schools, and the increased physical contact that comes with more time being spent indoors as the weather gets colder will all have an impact.
The influenza outbreaks that typically occur in the fall will be regarded as pre-COVID-19 outbreaks, Kurji added.
“In addition to that, our people are getting a little tired of all this physical distancing and maintaining good hygiene principles, something that the virus will definitely take advantage of,” Kurji said.
All these factors make it “very likely” there will be a second wave, he said.
The medical officer’s warning regarding the expected second wave was met with concern by politicians at York Regional council last Thursday when he told them, “It is generally thought that the second wave could be much worse than the first wave — it could be as much as four times worse.”
“That’s pretty startling, four times as bad as what we just went through,” Newmarket Regional Councillor Tom Vegh said.
Kurji acknowledged “four times worse” is the worst-case scenario, and “twice as bad” is more likely.
However, he added, what’s ahead “is really unknown”, and the biggest factor impacting the severity of the second wave will be the opening of the border with the U.S. and how it has controlled its outbreak.
Maintaining the public health structures developed during the pandemic would ensure York Region can mobilize resources next fall to check the second wave “by very quickly recognizing cases, doing all the contact investigations and the outbreaks being controlled, and ensuring we have lots of testing available,” Kurji told council.
“It’s very possible if the numbers go down in the next few weeks, people will be tempted to break down the structure we have put in place, and then it will take us a week to two weeks to mobilize properly and, shall we say, the horse will be out of the barn by then,” he added.
The medical officer of health emphasized, “The hygiene principles have to be embedded in our DNA now going forward.”
Physical distancing, wearing a mask if you can’t be two meters apart, and when on public transit, washing your hands frequently, staying at home if you have symptoms, and getting tested if you have symptoms remain crucial for the year ahead, he said.
